Most councils face insolvency over mounting special educational needs (Send) deficits without significant reform, a survey has found.

Around four in five councils (79 per cent) said they will not be able to set a balanced budget in 2028 when the statutory override keeping Send overspends off their balance sheets ends, findings from Local Government Association (LGA) research show.

The Government said at the autumn Budget that local authorities will not be expected to fund Send costs once the override ends.

However, almost all (94 per cent) of 87 local authorities which responded to the LGA survey said they would probably continue to overspend without Send reform even if their deficit was removed in 2028.

Nearly half said they would be likely to overspend their Send budget at a faster rate than previously.

Councillor Amanda Hopgood, chairman of the LGA’s children, young people and families committee, said: ‘Under the current system, the rise in support need has left many councils buckling under the strain. 

‘The huge costs in providing support are threatening most councils with insolvency.’

Almost all councils (95 per cent) said they currently have a deficit on their dedicated schools grant for 2025/26. 

The LGA is urging the Government to write off councils’ Send deficits in the final local government finance settlement, but also to ensure its reforms in the Schools White Paper ensure more children with Send can get support in mainstream schools.

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, said: ‘Even where councils are accumulating deficits, the support they are stretching to still often falls short of what schools and families require.

‘It’s urgent that this is addressed in the forthcoming White Paper, both through systemic reform and significant investment.’

Much of the speculation about the Government’s Send reforms has been around education, health and care plans (EHCPs), which are legal documents setting out the support a young person with Send is entitled to.

The growth in EHCPs has meant spiralling spending for councils and some have recommended legislative change to focus EHCPs on the highest need alone – which many Send parents have raised concerns about. 

The number of EHCPs issued has been soaring and stood at 638,745 as of January 2025, up from 353,995 in 2019.

Education minister Georgia Gould has previously said there ‘will always be a legal right to additional support’ for young people with Send.

Meanwhile, new Teacher Tapp polling for the Social Market Foundation of 9,000 teachers found more than half (58 per cent) would be in favour in reducing EHCPs in order to instead spend money on earlier intervention or classroom-based support.

Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts imply a £6billion gap between expected funding and costs of Send in 2028/29, which the Government has said will be absorbed in the overall Government budget rather than coming from schools.

The Schools White Paper with the Government’s plans for Send reforms is expected to be published in the forthcoming weeks. 

A Department for Education spokesman said: ‘We’re changing the school system and ending the postcode lottery so children with Send get the right support earlier, when and where they need it.’