New South Wales is on track to fall woefully short of delivering 377,000 new homes by 2029, stoking fears Sydney‘s property market is spiralling out of control.

The state was promised thousands of new homes under the Albanese government’s National Housing Accord, but approvals are nowhere near the pace required. 

ABS figures reveal NSW missed its first-year target by a staggering 43.5 per cent.

Just 42,581 homes were delivered in the past 12 months, far below the 75,400 required annually to stay on track. 

At this rate, only around five of the state’s 43 councils will meet their targets, leaving NSW staring down a shortfall of more than 120,000 homes. 

Meanwhile, Sydney house prices are surging.

Domain’s September report showed the city’s median house price jumped 3.4 per cent to a record $1.75million, the fastest quarterly growth in more than two years. 

Units climbed too, with the median now at $880,000.

Economists warn the federal government’s expanded First Home Guarantee, which lets buyers enter the market with just a five per cent deposit, will make things worse. 

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver blasted the scheme as ‘totally ridiculous,’ saying it ‘just pushes prices up by the same amount’ and leaves buyers saddled with ’95 per cent LVR loans and more debt’. 

Independent economist Saul Eslake agreed, arguing the policy ‘boosts demand without fixing supply,’ worsening the crisis. 

Analysts predict the changes could drive prices up 3 to 10 per cent in entry-level markets, wiping out any savings from avoiding mortgage insurance.

On Thursday night, NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman slammed the scheme as ‘immoral’ during a speech at the NSW Liberals for Housing launch. 

He accused Labor of driving up demand without the needed supply, warning that first home buyers taking on 95 per cent mortgages could face serious risks.

‘It’s also cruel, in a sense,’ Speakman said, while comparing the policy to the US housing crisis which sparked a global recession. 

‘The Global Financial Crisis in 2007–08 happened because there were virtually no barriers to getting loans in the United States, with Fannie Mae and others dishing out low-doc and no-doc loans,’ he continued. 

‘You’re potentially setting people up for a massive fall if the bubble bursts in the years ahead. In many ways, it’s almost immoral to lead people down that path again.’

NSW Premier Chris Minns has publicly admitted the state is falling short of its ambitious housing target, blaming councils for blocking development. 

He accused some of being ‘NIMBYs’ and warned he will override or punish councils that fail to approve enough projects.

The federal government, however, is standing firm.

Housing Minister Clare O’Neil insists Treasury modelling shows the scheme will only lift prices by 0.5 per cent over six years. 

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also backed the policy, saying it was designed to ‘level the playing field’ for first home buyers.