Russia has accused Moldova of plotting a military operation in Transnistria, a Russian-backed secessionist region, setting off concerns among some analysts that Moscow might be a “false flag” attack in Moldova.

Russian intelligence said earlier this week that Moldova’s President Maia Sandu was planning a military operation in Transnistria, which borders Ukraine. Sandu was sworn in for her second term as president on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed that NATO was turning Moldova into a weapons hub for Ukraine, an accusation that is only likely to further fuel fears that Moscow might be seeking a justification for potential action against its smaller neighbour.

Here is more about what is going on with Russia and Moldova — and what to expect.

What has Russia alleged?

On Monday, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said that Moldova’s Sandu was planning a military operation in Transnistria. Russian intelligence speculated that the military operation could escalate into war.

Sandu’s chief of staff, Adrian Balutel, refuted the claims, insisting that the country had no such plans to militarily enter Transnistria, even though it claims the territory as a part of Moldova.

Then, on Wednesday, Russia added a new allegation — that the US-led NATO had transferred a large number of weapons to Moldova in recent months. Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, said that Moscow believed these weapons were ultimately intended for Ukraine. She cited Sandu’s pro-Western leanings to bolster her claims.

In recent months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increasingly suggested that not just Ukraine, but other countries that help it in its war against Moscow could potentially be treated by the Kremlin as enemies that it might attack.

What are the ‘false flag’ concerns?

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sandu has raised the alarm that Moldova could be Moscow’s next target, urging Western leaders to address Moldova’s concerns.

When Sandu was sworn in for her second term this week in the capital Chisinau, she said, “We managed to open the door wide to the European Union.” Moldova has been a candidate country for the EU since June 2022, waiting for Brussels to formally accept its request to join the group.

The Kremlin’s latest accusations, say analysts from the Washington, DC, based Institute for the Study of War, could be part of a larger plan to disrupt Moldova’s accession into the European Union (EU), by destabilising it. The Kremlin, the ISW cautioned in a report, could also be setting conditions “for a false flag operation in Transnistria”.

What is Transnistria?

Transnistria is a Russia-allied breakaway region of Moldova, sandwiched between part of the Dniester River in Moldova, and Ukraine. Romania lies to its West.

The region broke away from Moldova in 1990. In September 2006, it passed a referendum reasserting its independence and calling for a union with Russia. This referendum was not recognised by Moldova.

In February 2022, leaders of Transnistria issued an appeal to Russia for protection. The appeal came days after the Ukraine war broke out, and was similar to appeals made to Russia by pro-Moscow leaders in parts of Ukraine, which Russia used as justification to take over Crimea in 2014, and large chunks of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in 2022.

Internationally, Transnistria is recognised as belonging to Moldova, but Europe views the region as occupied by Russia since 2022.

Transnistria hosts Russian troops, as well as a major Russian weapons storage facility, the Cobasna ammunition depot.

Presently, 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed within the breakaway Moldovan region, according to a report published by Harvard International Review in October.

What are other ways Russia is pressuring Moldova?

Political: Moldova voted in a presidential election last month amid claims of Russia meddling. However, the pro-Western Sandu won 55.33 percent of the vote, defeating former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, who had the backing of the Russia-leaning Socialist Party.

In a report published earlier this year, London-based think tank Chatham House said that research by the think tank “suggests that Moscow is also targeting the Moldovan public information space with toxic disinformation”.

Moldova’s national security service has also alleged that pro-Russian oligarchs in Moldova have paid millions of euros to stage antigovernment protests and commit election fraud. These include former Moldovan parliamentarian Ilan Shor, who was convicted in absentia for fraud charges in January.

Energy: Meanwhile, Moldova faces an energy crisis. Moldova receives about 2 billion cubic metres (71 billion cubic feet) of gas from Russia annually. Since 2022, all this gas is sent into Transnistria.

Transnistria then sells electricity, generated using Russian gas, to Moldova.

However, this gas comes through a pipeline that passes through Ukraine. Kyiv has now decided that it will no longer allow the transit of this gas. Sandu has accused Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, of refusing to consider the use of an alternative pipeline, and has tried to prepare Moldova for what she has said will be a “harsh” winter without Russian gas.

Russia’s gas supply to Moldova is expected to end on January 1, 2025. Earlier in December, Moldova declared a state of emergency over the impending shortage.

Violence: In April 2022, explosions targeted the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, the largest city in Transnistria. A day later, more explosions destroyed two powerful radio antennas among other facilities in Transnistria.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, alongside other allies of Ukraine, said these explosions were also false flag attacks orchestrated by Russia to portray Transnistria as being under attack from Moldova — because of Moldova’s support for Ukraine.