One Nation would be within ‘arm’s reach’ of forming government with the Coalition if an election were held today, a new poll has revealed.

The DemosAU poll, based on data collected from May to July 2026 from 9,343 voters, shows Australia would be on course for a hung parliament, with both Labor and One Nation in the running to form a minority government.

The MRP model, which projects results for all 150 federal seats, shows Labor on track to win 60 to 72 seats, One Nation 53 to 66 seats, the Coalition 11 to 22 seats, and the Greens between one and five seats.

Despite Labor holding the majority of seats, including 45 inner-metropolitan seats, the poll shows One Nation leading on a primary vote of 30 per cent in the 64 outer-metropolitan seats most likely to decide government.

It also appears the right-wing party is leading in 39 of the 41 seats classified as regional or rural, on a primary vote of 41 per cent, with the real possibility it could complete a clean sweep of all 41 seats.

Despite Opposition Leader Angus Taylor seemingly blocking any notion of a deal with One Nation, claiming its economic plan would bring an ‘eternity of pain’, Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg broke ranks on Monday and left the door open to the possibility.

DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said One Nation enjoys its strongest support in party leader Pauline Hanson’s home state of Queensland.

‘One Nation’s strongest state is Queensland, where it has risen to 34 per cent and is leading in 20 of the state’s 30 seats according to the MRP model,’ Mr Hasanakos said in a statement.

Mr Hasanakos continued: ‘The most significant finding of the MRP is that One Nation is now leading across many outer metro seats in Brisbane and Perth, as well as a few in outer Sydney and outer Melbourne.

‘It is in these seats that One Nation needs to win to have a chance of forming at least a minority government.’

Mr Hasanakos also said the party’s primary vote has risen by five percentage points in Western Australia, with Labor MPs Trish Cook, Tom French and Tracey Roberts all under threat from the orange wave.

In Tasmania, One Nation has surged into the lead in three northern and central Tasmanian seats, with Labor only holding a firm lead in the seat of Franklin.

However, in Victoria, despite the party leading in all eight regional and rural seats, it does not have a firm lead in any of the five held by the Coalition.

The poll also shows Labor has lost support among women, down four percentage points compared to a two-point fall among men, while One Nation has enjoyed a surge in support among high-income voters.

‘One Nation’s gender gap has shifted relatively towards men with a four percentage point rise compared to just two among women,’ Mr Hasanakos said.

‘Conversely Labor’s vote share has fallen more as the respondent’s income has increased, which indicates an impact from the public reaction about the recent budget tax changes.’

However, the poll indicates there remains a sizeable contingent of ‘Never Hanson’ Coalition voters who would rather give their preferences to Labor than vote for One Nation.

Mr Hasanakos added: ‘There are a minority cohort of Liberal voters in metropolitan Australia that are averse to One Nation, and their preferences are keeping Labor from falling behind in the race for government at this point.’

It comes as Hanson has faced repeated scrutiny over the past month following her return from the UK, where she conducted an interview with anti-immigration activist and convicted criminal Tommy Robinson and told a conservative conference Australia had been ‘flooded’ with migrants.

She has also faced calls to walk back her comments on domestic violence after she told Brisbane radio station 4BC last week that abuse is a ‘two way street’ between women and men.

She is also under pressure to sack her longtime colleague Malcolm Roberts, who has been accused of embracing conspiracy theories and anti-Semitic tropes.