It has been a groggy start for many Liberals this morning, as they contemplate the train wreck from last night.

MPs I have talked and texted with this morning seem to think that shadow treasurer Angus Taylor will emerge as the clear frontrunner to take over the leadership now that Peter Dutton has lost the election as well as his seat.

But they have concerns that Taylor’s stewardship of the Opposition’s economic messaging was poor, including during the campaign, coupled with his questionable performances in parliament.

‘He’s not great but might be all we have for now,’ one Liberal MP said.

The feeling is that deputy leader Sussan Ley might be ‘too risky and too loose’ to take over.

Ley is also 63 years of age, older than the PM.

‘But as a woman perhaps that will help us at this time,’ the Liberal MP said.

Ley might be worth considering as a stop gap contender, but it’s hard to think she wouldn’t risk being undermined from day one.

At any rate, as part of Dutton’s leadership team she was part of the failure that played out last night. That has to count against her.

Other options who would involve renewal include defence spokesman and WA MP Andrew Hastie or Victorian MP Dan Tehan, but if they are to emerge as serious contenders ‘it will only become clear in the days to come, not this weekend’, the Liberal source argued.

Hastie is certainly a long-term option seen as capable of winning, but is he ready right now?

Tehan might be too folksy to be taken seriously. One name I would like to throw in the mix is Sydney MP for Berowra Julian Leeser.

A moderate who resigned from Peter Dutton’s frontbench over the Voice, he might serve as a clear sign of a clean out and new direction for the party, which voters seem to want.

But who are the moderate Liberals left in the parliament to get behind him?

Most have lost their seats, both at this election and the last against Teals. It is slim pickings for the Liberals when considering new leaders.

Dutton has largely been a one-man band for the last three years. The dominant figure to be sure.

The lesser names now left don’t jump out at you as natural successors.

Which is perhaps why Taylor is the favourite, simply because he’s the most obvious contender.

But how long will Taylor last if he doesn’t shine quickly after taking over? Liberals have a habit of blowing themselves apart in opposition, especially when times are tough….and these are certainly the toughest of times.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers couldn’t wipe the grin off his face on Insiders this morning.

After a couple of hours sleep, he was back on the ABC to dissect Labor’s thumping victory.

The Treasurer insisted he was keen ‘not do dance on the political graves of our opponents’.

But then he stuck the knife in.

‘There was a real kind of darkness at the heart of the Coalition’s campaign, this kind of backwards looking pessimism, which Australians rejected,’ he said.

‘And in rejecting that I think they embraced the kind of leadership which Anthony Albanese provides which is practical, pragmatic, it is problem solving and it’s very forward-looking.’

Chalmers said he had already had a briefing from the Treasury today at 6.45am.

Nationals Leader David Littleproud has hinted that the Coalition may be open to dumping its controversial nuclear policy.

He said that the party would ‘sit down obviously after this and work through the policy positions and make sure they’re fit for purpose and fit for the future’.

The junior Coalition partner was scathing of the WFH policy, which Peter Dutton backflipped on when it proved deeply unpopular with voters.

Littleproud admitted it ‘wasn’t handled well’.

Nationals leader David Littleproud came out swinging on Channel Nine’s morning program Today, claiming Labor won the election by ‘destroying’ Peter Dutton’s character.

‘They ran a very smart campaign… and effectively, they won it by destroying Peter Dutton’s character that sadly and effectively made him unelectable, in his own electorate and across the country, and we paid the price,’ he said.

He claimed Labor also attempted to link Donald Trump to Mr Dutton.

‘It became a campaign between two leaders effectively, and that’s what here in Australia it’s become,’ he said.

‘I think Labor did an outstanding job of doing that, unfortunately for us. I just don’t think we had the ground campaign, and Labor were better at it.

‘You got to look back and cop it on the chin.’

World leaders have shared their congratulations with Anthony Albanese after he was re-elected Prime Minister.

French President Emmanual Macron

‘In the face of global challenges, Australia and France have so much to achieve together — especially in the Indo-Pacific.

‘Let us continue to write, with ambition and friendship, the new chapter of our partnership.’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

‘I wish you continued success in serving the people of Australia and delivering meaningful achievements.

‘Ukraine sincerely values Australia’s unwavering support and its principled stance on ending Russia’s war and securing a dignified and lasting peace.’

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio

‘Australia is a valued ally, partner, and friend of the United States.

‘The United States looks forward to deepening its relationship with Australia to advance our common interests and promote freedom and stability in the Indo-Pacific and globally.’

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto

‘His renewed mandate reflects the trust and confidence of the Australian people in his vision for the country’s future.’

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

‘This emphatic mandate indicates the enduring faith of the Australian people in your leadership.’

It has been a frontbench bloodbath for the Coalition.

Apart from losing the election, delivering Labor a clear majority and Peter Dutton losing his seat, a stream of shadow ministers have also been defeated, alongside up and comers who had been viewed as the future of the party.

Not anymore, unless they make a comeback in three years time.

The shadow foreign minister David Coleman lost his seat of Banks.

New manager of opposition business and shadow housing spokesman Michael Sukkar lost his Melbourne seat of Deakin.

Frontbencher and salt of the earth Liberal MP for Petrie in Queensland Luke Howarth lost his seat.

Those are the fronthbenchers whose parliamentary careers are over, at least for now.

Added to that list are up and coming backbenchers Jamie Stevens in Sturt and Keith Wolahan in his Melbourne electorate of Menzies.

These are two of the last remaining Liberal MPs to hold inner city seats. Also two moderates their defeats have further gutted the moderate ranks of the Liberal Party after teals did the same three years ago.

Outspoken maverick backbencher Bridget Archer has also lost her Tasmania seat of Bass.

The Coalition only has 37 confirmed wins in the 150 seat House of Representatives.

More will join them when counting is completed amongst the 19 seats in doubt, but the Opposition’s best case scenario is a total somewhere in the mid 40s, more than a dozen fewer seats than it won at the disastrous 2022 election defeat.

Teals have unanimously been re-elected, with likely new additions to their ranks. The only sitting teal whose seat remains up in the air is that of Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, but late counting last night had her slightly extending her lead over Tim Wilson who was attempting a comeback.

The Greens are looking at wins and losses, but the biggest news is that its leader Adam Bandt looks like scrapping home after appearing in deep trouble last night during the count.

As a result his leadership might come under pressure.

The real game in the next parliament for the Greens will be in the senate, where it will continue to play a role controlling the balance of power. A leader based in the senate would make more sense for the minor party.

The race for the seat of Melbourne has changed, with incumbent Adam Bandt of the Greens seizing a narrow lead of 2,027 votes over Labor challenger Sarah Witty, with 60.1 per cent of the vote counted.

Despite a five per cent swing to Labor, the Greens leader moved slightly ahead on Sunday morning morning after trailing overnight, with Bandt sitting on 51.5 per cent the vote, compared to Witty’s 48.5 per cent.

Peter van Onselen’s take

I can’t see Adam Bandt losing from here in his seat of Melbourne.

The Greens leader suffered a massive scare last night, leading to a bizarre rant when fronting the cameras.

He’s putting away and should continue to do so. Even if Labor mounts something of a comeback in pre-poll and postal votes, which I don’t expect because as the incumbency Bandt should have postals covered, his lead is becoming unassailable.

More concerning for the Greens leader might be his chances of surviving a challenge by colleagues in the election’s aftermath.

The minor party has lost lower house seats in Queensland, even if it’s in the hunt to win others.

The Greens primary vote is strong by historical standards and its senate results look solid and will give it a share of the balance of power there.

But in the new parliament a Greens leader in the senate where the big debates over negotiating the passing, blocking or amandine of Labor policies and legislation makes more sense.

Time will tell if Bandt’s colleagues decide his leadership days need to be put behind him.

Monique Ryan has proved she is no ‘one-hit wonder’, with the teal independent vanquishing a second Liberal rival in succession.

With 56.1 per cent of the vote counted, the former paediatric neurologist held an estimated lead of about four per cent in the Melbourne seat of Kooyong over Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer.

Dr Ryan took a swipe at members of a secretive Christian sect known as the Plymouth Brethren Christian Church, campaigning for Ms Hamer.

‘We’re still waiting for some data to come in,’ she told supporters at the Auburn Hotel late on Saturday night.

‘But it seems pretty clear that despite the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, this band of brothers has overcome the Brethren.’

While Ms Hamer is yet to concede, Dr Ryan concluded her speech with ‘let’s have a party’ as Tina Turner’s River Deep Mountain High blared through the venue.

Emotional Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather has conceded.

The housing spokesman reportedly told his supporters that he had set out to ‘fundamentally transform Australian politics, economy and society in favour of ordinary working people’.

‘That sort of project is going to have more setbacks than it has victories, because the forces that we are coming up against are enormously powerful,’ he said.

‘I believe we can get there. I believe we can win.

‘It is going to take time.’

His ‘one request’ for his supporters was: ‘Do not give up’.

The Nationals have again outperformed the Liberals, battening down the hatches in their seats as their coalition partner experienced an electoral storm.

The junior coalition party has retained almost all of its seats and took large chunks out of Labor’s margin in the Northern Territory seat of Solomon and Victorian seat of Bendigo, but were ultimately unsuccessful in both.

The regional NSW seat of Calare has been called for independent Andrew Gee who quit the party and sat on the crossbench over its objection to the Voice referendum.

But Nationals Leader David Littleproud didn’t rule the party out of the contest.

‘We’re not out of the Calare fight either. Our modelling is showing its 50-50, we’re still waiting for those numbers to come in,’ he said.

The coalition needed to win Calare to win government, Mr Littleproud had claimed ahead of a Liberal wipeout and Labor claiming majority government.

Nationals candidate Sam Farraway oversaw a near 20 per cent hit to the party’s primary vote.

Independent Caz Heise has had a thin swing toward her in the NSW mid-north coast seat of Cowper, but Nationals MP Pat Conaghan kept his nose in front.

Ms Heise increased her primary vote by 5.5 per cent while Mr Conaghan’s dropped by more than six, but the Nationals MP held the seat with just over 52 per cent after preference flows, with about 40 per cent of ballots counted.

‘We knew it was going to be tight, no secret there, but he’s done the work,’ Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie told Nine on Saturday night.

Bendigo and Hunter were targets but have been called for Labor.

But results for the former wouldn’t be known until Monday with more preference data yet to be crunched, Mr Littleproud said despite the call.

Labor increased its lead in the Hunter, where the Opposition had planned to put one of its nuclear power plants.

The Nationals nearly claimed Solomon with the associated Country Liberal Party picking up a seven per cent swing, but Labor’s Luke Gosling just held on with 1.5 per cent.

Adam Bandt declared victory shortly before midnight on Sunday – even though the official count had him trailing Labor challenger Sarah Witty.

Despite a Greens wipeout, which will likely see his housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather lose his inner Brisbane seat of Griffith, the Greens leader struck an upbeat tone in a midnight declaration.

‘Today, millions of people have voted Greens with hope and ambition. We have secured the biggest national vote in our history,’ he wrote on X at 11.36pm.

‘And together we have kicked Dutton out.’

Bandt claimed that they would retain ‘Melbourne’, his own seat, before paying tribute to Chandler-Mather, claiming ‘this is not the last we’ve seen of him’.

‘He put the rental crisis firmly in the spotlight,’ he wrote.

‘He secured billions of dollars for social housing. He fed his local community with his own money.’

Respected British political commentator Andrew Neil has described Labor’s win as ‘another triumph for Trump’.

‘Having scuppered the chances of the Right winning in Canada (they were 23 points ahead until he started talking about the 51st state) he’s scored a repeat performance in Australia, where the Labor government has been decisively re-elected in a contest which at one stage looked like the Right could win,’ Neil added.

‘And, just as Canada’s centre-right leader (Poilievre) lost his seat as well as the election, so has Australian Conservative Coalition leader, Peter Dutton.’

Greens firebrand Max Chandler-Mather looks set to lose his inner-city Brisbane seat of Griffith.

The party’s housing spokesman has suffered an almost 17 per cent two-party preferred swing to Labor rival Renee Coffey.

Chandler-Mather, who donates $50,000 of his salary to pay for school meals in his electorate, has been a regular thorn in the PM’s side over housing.

The Liberals are facing a wipeout in Australia’s second biggest city.

Melbourne was viewed as Peter Dutton’s narrow path to government but instead it pulled the rug out from under him.

Liberal frontbencher Michael Sukkar and first-term MP Keith Wolahan are projected to lose their seats of Menzies and Deakin, respectively, in Melbourne’s east.

The Liberals are also narrowly trailing further east in Casey, although the result was too close to call late on Saturday night.

The potential losses would leave the party without a single seat in inner or middle Melbourne, and the coalition with just seven seats across the entire state.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Albanese on his election victory.

‘The UK and Australia are as close as ever – which goes to show that long-distance friendships can be the strongest,’ Starmer said.

India’s Narendra Modi sent his congratualtions for Labor’s ‘resounding victory’.

‘This emphatic mandate indicates the enduring faith of the Australian people in your leadership,’ the Indian PM added.

Meanwhile, Papua New Guinea PM James Marape became the first foreign leader to ring Albanese to congratulate him.

‘I just spoke to PM Albanese two minutes ago offering PNG’s congratulations and he appreciated and affirmed to be with us on our 16th September anniversary celebrations as well as progressing what we have started,’ Marape said in a statement posted at 9.17pm.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba expressed his heartfelt congratulations and said he looked foward to collaborating and realising a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’.

Who is Ali France, the woman who ended Peter Dutton’s career in politics?

Read her incredible – and incredibly tragic – story here:

The main casualty is, of course, Peter Dutton.

The Opposition Leader lost his seat of Dickson to Labor’s Ali France.

But which other big hitters also lost out?

Shadow Minister for Housing, NDIS, and Social Services Michael Sukkar was beaten by Labor Challenger Matt Gregg in the Melbourne seat of Deakin.

The Liberal frontbencher had retained his seat with a margin of just 0.2 per cent at the last election. However, boundary changes meant that gap narrowed to just 0.02 per cent this time around.

In the end, he shed five per cent of his vote.

Meanwhile, Bridget Archer, Liberal MP for Bass in Tasmania, was a favourite to win on an ultra-thin margin of 1.4 per cent but she was ousted by Labor’s Jess Teesdale.

The PM has finished his speech with a flourish – and a sly dig at the Coalition.

‘Our government will choose the Australian way, because we are proud of who we are and all that we have built together in this country,’ he told his supporters.

‘We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else. We do not seek our inspiration from overseas.

‘We find it right here in our values and in our people.’

Of course, he is referring to the Coalition’s early adoption of many Trumpian policies – only to then dump them when the US President became the most unpopular man in the world after he introduced tariffs.

The PM told the party faithful he woul dbe hard at work in the morning.

‘Tomorrow, we dedicate ourselves to your service. We renew the great responsibility and the opportunity of government,’ he said.

‘And with pride and purpose, optimism and determination, with faith in the fair go and faith in each other, we return to the work of building Australia’s future.’

The PM has praised his son Nathan ‘who’s grown into a fine young man who I am just so proud of’.

And then he turned to his wife-to-be Jodie.

‘(She) probably wasn’t expecting for this to be in your life half a dozen years ago,’ he said.

‘I am so grateful for your support, your friendship and your love. You make me so happy. Which matters.

‘You have my heart, I love you and I look forward to living our lives together.’

The PM tells the party faithful he was ‘raised to be an optimist’.

‘My mother had a hard life and we struggled financially but she told me to always be positive, and see the best in people,’ he said.

‘When it comes to Australia’s future all of us have so much reason to be optimistic because when we look at everything going on around the world today, when we consider the changes that will shape the future of the global economy, and when we think about our people who have smarts and skills, actually there is nowhere else you would rather be than right here in Australia.’

It’s a victory speech – but the PM is doing his utmost to remain gracious.

He told the crowd that Peter Dutton rang him to concede defeat and at the mention of the Opposition Leader’s name some of them started jeering and booing.

But the PM stopped them.

‘No. What we do in Australia is we treat people with respect,’ he said.

‘I thanked Peter for his generous words at the end of what has been a very hard fought campaign, and I want to take this opportunity to wish Peter and generally in their family — Kirilly, all the best for their future.’

After a week where the news was dominated by controversies around Welcome to Country, Albanese has delivered a defiant Acknowledgement to Country.

‘I acknowledge the traditional owners of the land on which we meet,’ he said, to huge applause and cheers from the crowd.

‘And I pay my respects to elders past, present and emerging today – and every day.’

Penny Wong has addressed the party faithful – and thanked them for ‘believing in the power of this great nation’.

‘The power in our 26 million people from more than 300 ancestries,’ she added.

Senator Wong said Labor had the chance to ‘write this next chapter so all Australians are part of our nation’s story’.

‘No matter who we are or where we come from, no matter age or gender, no matter the lottery of birth, Australia’s opportunity is for us all,’ she said.

‘And friends, that Australian story is embodied by our Australian Prime Minister, a man who shows what real strength is.

‘A man of courage, a man of compassion.’

Peter Dutton was supported by his family during his emotional concession speech.

He turned to hug his wife of 22 years, Kirilly and boys Harry and Tom and daughter Rebecca.

Peter Dutton has spoken to supporters after losing the election and his own seat of Dickson, saying he called Albanese to congratulate him and concede defeat.

‘I said to the PM that his mum would be incredibly proud of his achievement tonight,’ Dutton said at Liberal HQ in Brisbane.

He also acknowledged his rival Ali France (pictured with the PM below) who had won his seat of Dickson after he held it for 24 years.

‘Ali and I have been combatants for a number of elections but she was successful in Dickson tonight, and she will do a good job as a local member.’

He said he took full responsibility for the loss and was ‘sorry’ to Liberal candidates who had lost their seats but insisted, ‘we will rebuild’.

Dutton also thanked his ‘amazing family’ for their support during his campaign.

‘I love this country and I’ve fought hard for it… We’ll rebuild from here, we’ll do that because we know our values, we know our beliefs and we’ll always stick to them.’

Anthony Albanese has won 77 seats, which is one more than the 76 needed for a majority government.

The result means Labor can govern in parliament alone.

Anthony Albanese is on his way to a Labor election party at Canterbury-Hurlstone Park RSL Club, where he is expected to address jubilant crowds.

Albanese was on the move with Foreign Minister Penny Wong.

It’s early but already time to start thinking about who is the next leader of the Liberal Party.

The front runner would be shadow treasurer Angus Taylor.

Next deputy leader Sussan Ley.

But both were key members of the parliamentary team that has delivered this disaster.

Another option would be someone like Andrew Hastie from WA, assuming he can hold his marginal seat given the bloodbath elsewhere.

Beyond this triumvirate the only other name in the mix might be Dan Tehan from Victoria, but like Hastie he’ll have to hold his seat of Wannon which is no certainty.

It’s hard not to think that tonight’s result – beyond all the obvious problems with the Coalition’s campaign – at least in part is voters sending two strong messages: they don’t like Peter Dutton, and because they expected Labor to win they swung strongly behind the government to avoid a hung parliament.

There were clear concerns in the electorate about what power Greens might wield if Labor dipped into minority government, so they decided to give Labor the majority it needed to avoid pandering to the crossbench.

In a rare piece of good news for the Coalition its candidate in the Northern Territory seat of Solomon is doing well and could end up being the only opposition candidate to steal a seat from the Labor Party.

In a stunning result Peter Dutton looks like losing his seat of Dickson.

I’m loathe to call this seat against Dutton because he has fought back and won it many times before.

But it looks extremely bad for him and a comeback would be Stephen Bradbury like from here as pre-polls are starting to slowly come in.

No opposition leader has lost their seat at an election since the arrival of the two party system.

John Howard – Peter Dutton’s mentor – lost his seat of Bennelong at the 2007 election, but that was as PM.

The results coming in tonight suggest Dutton would have lost the leadership after tonight anyway, but he now appears to be out of parliament entirely.

The Liberals are going to have to start the search for a new leader.

The biggest problem Dutton has from here is that he’s behind Labor on primaries and almost every candidate is sending their preferences the way of the Labor candidate.

It’s hard not to think his nuclear policy wasn’t a big part of the problem.

There’s going to be some sore heads in the Labor camp in the morning…

Jubilant party volunteers were pictured jumping for joy at the Canterbury-Hurlstone Park RSL Club in Sydney’s inner-west after the election was called for their party.

Dutton is set to lose his seat.

That’s according to the ABC and Channel Nine, who have both just called it.

It’s looking like a very, very bleak night for the Opposition Leader.

He has held the seat since 2001.

Labor ministers Chris Bowen and Katy Gallagher have all but claimed victory in the federal election after declaring there is ‘no pathway for the Coalition’.

‘Well, the leader claims victory – not us mere cabinet members,’ Bowen said on Nine’s live election night coverage.

‘But I do agree. I don’t see a pathway for the Coalition. I don’t see a possible pathway at all.’

Gallagher concurred.

‘I think from the Coalition’s side, there’s no pathway through this,’ she said.

‘And I say that it’s only 8.24 – and we’ve still, as we say, got to watch some of those other results come in – but it looks impossible.’

Albanese becomes the first PM to win back-to-back elections since John Howard in 2004.

Daily Mail Australia called the election for Anthony Albanese first at 7.40pm.

ABC’s election guru Antony Green called it 45 minutes later at 8.25pm.

Green was followed by news.com.au and Nine.

The ABC coverage has been beset by technical failures.

The broadcaster’s chief election analyst Antony Green had to analyse data from the Australian Electoral Commission’s website while standing in front of a blank screen.

Viewers were quick to share the sympathies with the election guru, who is covering his final results night tonight.

‘Stop making Antony Green stand in front of a busted screen! He deserves better than that,’ one person wrote.

Nikki Savva, one of Australia’s most incisive political commentators, has even made a drinking game out of it.

‘My favourite election-night drinking game: skull a shot of schnapps each time Antony Green can’t get the technology to work,’ she said.

‘I rarely see 8pm.’

Our Political Editor Peter Van Onselen said Green is ‘now standing in front of a blank screen holding a note pad with scribbles on it;.

‘I bet he can’t wait for his retirement to start!,’ he said.

‘Meanwhile I can’t decide who has had a worse night so far: Green with his broken computer, Peter Dutton with his career in the balance, or Annabel Crabb with the hotwater bottle around her neck!’

We’ve asked the ABC what is causing the glitch.

A caption on its website said: ‘We’re having some server problems.’

Labor’s Jerome Laxale has held on to the ultra-marginal seat of Bennelong in Sydney’s lower North Shore.

It marks a major upset as Liberal challenger Scott Yung had been tipped to win..

Things are looking rosy for Labor – so far.

‘Labor is everywhere outperforming what the opinion polls were saying,’ the ABC’s Antony Green said.

‘It would have to be a huge swing, a massively better result for the Coalition with the pre-poll vote (for them to win).

‘It’s only 5 per cent (counted) but we are seeing this all across the country at the moment.’

Former Liberal minister Christopher Pyne concedes the Coalition was never going to form government in its own right – but insists it could still be a long night before we have a clear picture of the state of play in parliament.

‘I’ve [previously] seen journalists reporting in the press that the Liberal Party has lost seats, that they’ve then won when they’ve actually counted the pre-polls and the postals,’ he said.

;So, you know, people love to be the first person to call the election but you just can’t do that anymore – there’s too many pre-polls and postals.’

He added there ‘there’s no scenario’ where the Coalition ends up with a majority of the nation’s seats ‘but that was never going to happen’.

‘I don’t think there’s any possibility of the Coalition forming a government based on these figures or any likely change big enough to for the Coalition to win,’ he said.

‘But I think we’ve always known that – and that’s why Peter Dutton’s always said there’s been no government that’s lost after one term since 1931.

‘The test is will it be a minority Labor government, and does Peter Dutton win enough seats for a Coalition to be competitive for the next three years?

‘That’s what I’m saying.’

Clive Palmer, of the Trumpet of Patriots incessant text campaign infamy, has been asked the single question on everyone’s mind this election campaign.

‘What’s the point?’, former Labor Leader Bill Shorten said to the minging magnate on Channel Seven.

‘Having a debate, having different ideas, having disagreements is not a bad thing for a democracy,’ Palmer insisted.

But does he have to send multiple text messages to seemingly every single person in Australia to achieve that?

Peter Dutton might not have to worry about getting rolled by the party room if he loses the election – because he might not be in it much longer.

With 9.5 per cent of the vote counted in his Queensland seat of Dickson, Dutton is down to just 29.9 per cent of the primary vote and trailing Labor candidate Ali France.

Labor Minister Chris Bowen says that once preferences are counted, things could look very ugly for Dutton.

‘You would think that if you’re voting teal, you’re more likely to preference Labor,’ he said.

‘So I agree you’d rather be Ali France at the moment than Peter Dutton, but a bit to go there yet.

‘It’s a very messy. That’s a very messy count.’

Of course, still noting the pre-poll votes are yet to be counted and they are expected to have a big impact on the numbers.

There is no way the Coalition can win this election even with just these early numbers.

Certainly not with a majority of their own, but even in minority.

While it is too early to rule in or out the Coalition taking away Labor’s majority, one way or the other Anthony Albanese has won this election.

Even if pre-poll votes see sizeable swings back to the Coalition it won’t be enough to overturn an informed prediction that Labor has won this election.

Things could be looking tense for Peter Dutton.

With 9.5 per cent of the vote counted in his Queensland seat of Dickson, Dutton is down to just 29.9 per cent of the primary vote and trailing Labor candidate Ali France.

It is her third time running against the Opposition Leader.

And you know what they say about third times…

Dutton, for his part, is remaining calm, telling Channel Nine that pre-poll votes tend to favour him ‘quite significantly’.

‘I think the early numbers you see will be distorting if they’re just from today,’ Dutton said.

‘Look I think the feedback from our marginal seat members over the course of the day has been that there’s been a very positive response and certainly a positive response through the week.’

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton insists it will still be about an hour before any ‘meaningful numbers’ come in and the nation gets a true gauge on the election results.

Speaking to Karl Stefanovic outside Liberal Party headquarters in Brisbane just moments ago, Dutton said early ballot counts would favour Labor while the Coalition would regain ground once the pre-poll tallies started dropping about 8.30pm

‘It’s been a long campaign,’ Dutton told Stefanovic.

‘I think everyone’s still running on fumes, but there’s some wonderful people we’ve met and moved from one side of the country to the other.

‘[We’ve] heard some really harrowing stories about people who are doing it tough, but our marginal seat members have worked really hard, so we’ll wait to see the results.

‘I don’t think we’ll see any meaningful numbers for another hour or so.

‘You need those pre-poll numbers, which have been in huge numbers and traditionally that favours us quite significantly, so I think the early numbers you see will be distorting if they’re just from today.

‘So let’s see how it goes over the next hour.

‘I think the feedback from our marginal seat members over the course of the day has been that there’s been a very positive response and certainly a positive response through the week with pre-polling.

‘You know, 30, 40, 50 per cent – depending on the seats of people – voted before today, and traditionally, if they’re older Australians, they’re more our way and they voted earlier.

‘And we want to see all of those numbers together.’

Dutton conceded it had been a rigorous election campaign but that he had not lost hope of a come-from-behind victory.

‘I think we believe in miracles. But it’s tough. I mean, a first-term government hasn’t lost since 1931, and the government’s run a campaign which obviously has been effective in terms of the mud that they’ve thrown and people have accepted some of those lies.

‘We have exceptional candidates in the field, though, and I think that offsets some of it.

‘You know, you just deal with each issue, each situation as it comes along. You stick to your values and stick to what you believe in.

‘That’s what we’ve done during the course of this campaign as well.’

Liberal insider to me just now: ‘It’s grim, Houston we have a problem!’

He says their scrutineers are glum as the early figures look bad for the Coalition.

Labor MP via text: ‘It’s Albo the Almighty, and yes I’m getting ahead of myself but things are looking good!’

With five per cent of the national vote counted the worry for the Coalition is its primary vote. It is falling behind Labor’s.

If that trend continues Peter Dutton is in trouble and I don’t just mean his bid to become PM.

That includes holding onto the Opposition leadership, perhaps even his own seat.

And to be self-deprecating my predictions of a minority government would also go out the window!

Pre-poll is starting to look like the only thing that can save the Coalition from a disaster.

Nine’s former star political reporter Laurie Oakes isn’t watching his former network’s election night coverage…

No, he’s tuned into the ABC – and he’s not happy.

Oakes has blasted the public broadcaster on social media, insisting the ABC’s chief political correspondent, Laura Tingle, should be playing a more central role in the channel’s election coverage.

‘The ABC has shoved Laura Tingle so far from the centre of its election panel that she is almost out of sight in the wings.

‘Stupidity!’

ABC’s veteran political journalist Annabel Crabb has confused viewers on election night over her choice of tie.

During the evening’s coverage of ‘Australia Votes’, Crabb joined a panel of pundits as the polling centres closed along the east coast.

But some viewers were less concerned with exit poll results, taking to social media to comment on the journalist’s choice of attire, namely her strange tie.

‘What’s going on with Annabel Crabb’s tie? Is it made of leather?’ someone asked on X, zooming in on the item of clothing.

One viewer compared the offending garment to an ‘ox tongue’ while another joked: ‘Must be very cold in the ABC studios. Annabel Crabb is forced to wear a hot water bottle across her chest.’

Labor has shown an early lead in Tasmania, Daily Mail Australia political editor Peter van Onselen says.

‘Something interesting is going on in Tasmania in the early counting.It’s early but Labor is tracking well in both Bass and Braddon,’ van Onselen said.

‘If the Liberals lost both seats any chance of winning can be officially ruled out. It would also mean no Liberal held seats in Tasmania.

‘In both 1993 and 2004 early results out of Tasmania quashed opposition attempts to win government. It happened to John Hewson’s Liberals in 1993 and Mark Latham’s Labor Party in 2004.

‘Could history be repeating itself this year for Dutton’s opposition? Maybe, but it’s early and I keep reminding readers that when pre-poll votes land later they will favour the Liberals. But swings to Labor in Tasmania are a concern for Liberals if the early results become a pattern’

The ABC’s Antony Green also pointed out ‘big swings’ toward Labor in Tasmania during the early vote count.

‘There is only five (Tasmanian) electorates and one of them is rock solid and if you look at the change in vote that is occurring there, a big swing to (Labor) and a big swing against the LNP,’ he said.

‘All of the electorates are showing a significant swing so it’s not just one or two polling places, there is something else going on there.’

Green added that ‘only time will tell if these figures are indicative’.

With less than half a per cent of the national vote counted, and none in WA, Labor and the Coalition’s primary votes are neck and neck, with the Greens just above 12 per cent.

It’s too early to make assumptions, but if that result does pan out it is bad news for the Coalition because it’s primary votes will need to be higher than Labor’s to be competitive on the two party vote after preferences.

That was the case in our Ipsos poll that had Labor ahead 51-49 percent after preferences.

If it isn’t replicated tonight, Labor will certainly win as a minority government and majority government can’t be ruled out.

BUT remember pre-polls aren’t in yet and they will favour the Coalition.

One final observation, remembering it is very early: Dan Tehan is looking okay in early results in Wannon where he is under threat from a teal independent.

But being a regional seat, booth by booth results can be lumpy.

Anthony Albanese’s triumphant return to the Lodge is all but secured, at least according to the bookies.

SportsBet are offering odds of just $1.02 for Labor to ‘supply’ the nation’s next prime minister following the election, meaning for every dollar wagered, gamblers have the chance of picking up just a two-cent win.

In comparison, the Coalition was marked at $12.50 to supply the next prime minister, ostensibly in Peter Dutton, but drifted out to $21 shortly before 8pm, while any other result was paying $151.

That’s the worst odds since the election was called.

Indeed, betting has now been suspended.

The first seats of the nights have been called.

Bob Katter has retained his outback Queensland seat of Kennedy, while the LNP’s Colin Boyce has held on in central Queensland’s Flynn.

Meanwhile, Labor’s Matt Thistlethwaite has also held on to the safe south-east Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith.

Senior Coalition figures have already scheduled meetings for Sunday morning to discuss who might replace Dutton in the event of a poor result.

Frontbencher Jane Hume, seen as a potential future deputy leader, contacted colleagues on Friday asking for meetings on the morning after election night, according to The Sydney Morning Herald.

Several sources confirmed Ms Hume’s move and said the purpose of the meetings was likely to discuss the party’s future leadership.

One Coalition MP, who remained nameless, said Dutton would need to gain at least five to 10 seats to remain leader.

The Coalition’s campaign spokesman, Senator James Paterson, has appeared on the ABC and immediately started to contextualise an expected loss this evening for the Opposition.

Senator Paterson has pointed out that history is against the Coalition winning, with nearly 100 years having passed since the last time a first term opposition won its way back into government.

He also pointed out that when Tony Abbott contested his first election as leader in 2010 he picked up seven seats from Labor – a clear marker the Coalition must think Peter Dutton can also achieve, or it wouldn’t have been mentioned.

Remembering that given another three years Abbott went on to win the 2013 election.

Another comparison that might emerge this evening between 2010 and this year’s election is the Coalition’s bid to reduce the Labor Party to a minority government.

Karl Stefanovic believes Peter Dutton will be rolled as the leader of the Opposition if he fails to secure an upset victory in the federal election tonight.

Speaking from the W Hotel in Brisbane’s inner-city this evening, Stefanovic said Dutton would need a miracle to win when the votes were counted tonight – and that his entire political career was at stake.

‘It’s certainly the calm before the storm here at Liberal party headquarters in Brisbane,’ he said

‘Peter arrived a short time ago with his entire family straight upstairs, where they’ll watch those all-important numbers come in.

‘It is a huge mountain to climb and he left no stone unturned during this five-week campaign, crisscrossing the nation from end to end, doing something in the order of 60,000km to try and secure every possible vote.

‘But it is a massive mountain for him to climb, there is no doubt about that.’

Stefanovic said that Dutton would ‘need a miracle of 2019 magnitude’ when then Liberal Prime Minister Scott Morrison pulled off an upset victory against Labor leader Bill Shorten.

‘That’s exactly what they’ll need, if not more,’ Stefanovic said.

‘You have the feeling, though, if things don’t go his way, it may not just be the leadership of the country that is up for grabs tonight, but possibly leadership of the Coalition.

‘Let’s see how things pan out.’

All the polls make it clear the Labor Party are likely to win this election, either as a minority government or perhaps with a narrow majority.

We’ll likely have to wait a while until we know one way or the other.

If Labor do form majority government it is hard to imagine Dutton surviving as leader, assuming he holds onto his Brisbane seat. I say that because a win by Labor with a majority probably means a tight shave in Dickson, one Dutton may not even survive.

There are question marks over who would replace him, with no standout candidates. Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor is one option. Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley another. Or perhaps generational change to someone like shadow defence minister Andrew Hastie is a possibility.

But if Labor gets back with a majority you would have to assume someone will come after Dutton’s job, even if he doesn’t pull the pin of his own accord.

But if Labor falls into minority, it is a very different story.

A narrow minority, say Labor winning 74 or 75 seats in the 150-seat chamber, could still see ambition to lead by others cause leadership tensions inside the Liberal Party after this election result is known.

But you would expect Dutton to fight to keep his job if he can lay claim to taking away Labor’s majority, even if only just.

If Labor’s share of seats falls further than 74, Dutton likely keeps his job unchallenged.

If Labor’s share of seats somehow falls even further, into the high 60s, it would still be more likely to form government as a minority administration, but that would take days or weeks to materialise.

Were that to happen it wouldn’t be Dutton under leadership pressure, it would be Anthony Albanese. He’d be luck to stay PM for more than six or 12 months.

That could even be the case of Labor’s share dropped to 70 or 71 seats. Why?

Because after what looked like a strong campaign supported by good polls and personal numbers, to only win like that would be regarded as failure at the end. After expectations rose to a point where such a victory became pyrrhic.

Polls have now also closed in South Australia and the Northern Territory.

Only polls in WA are still open.

Not for the first time, Anthony Albanese has been ridiculed for his handwriting.

The PM shared an image (pictured below) on Saturday of a hand-scrawled note outlining his key election pledges.

‘Lower taxes, stronger Medicare, 20% off student debt, free TAFE and 5% deposits for first home buyers,’ the PM wrote.’

‘Vote Labor.’

But his, er, rather unusual cursive was immediately criticised online.

‘My six-year-old grandson has better handwriting,’ wrote one.

Ouch.

Daily Mail Australia previously examined what Albo’s hand writing says about him.

And it makes for interesting reading…

The early numbers are starting to come in now but they are utterly meaningless.

Single early booths, less than a fraction of a percent of the vote are isolated and unless when trying to watch for trends.

They really mean nothing.

Give it another 30 minutes to an hour and we will see what the VERY early state of play tells us.

Queensland senator James McGrath claims he doesn’t think Australia will know who the PM is tonight.

‘I think when everybody goes to bed too many seats will be too close to call,’ he told the ABC.

‘There is a high soft vote out there still and there are a number of unique and different contests across the country.’

It echoes comments made by Peter Dutton who said there was a large number of ‘quiet Australians’ who would be backing the Coalition.

But even Senator McGrath thinks the path to power for the Coalition has narrowed to a ‘goat track’.

‘There is a very narrow pathway – it is a goat track, there are lots of billy goats on it and lots of rock slides, but we’re not going to know tonight, I don’t think,’ he added.

This election is going to be unique. Results might still be up in the air when the AEC stops counting and we all go to bed.

That’s because of the unusually low major party primary votes and the fact there are so many minor parties and independents whose preferences will be influential in tight contests.

While it may be obvious Labor will win, somehow, because its share of seats is well above that of the Coalition, don’t be surprised if analysts are loathe to call close seats until very late or in the days to come.

Pre-poll votes get counted tonight, but there are more than seven million of them and they get added after 9pm.

Only after all the first preference votes have been counted do AEC officials start counting preferences.

Predictive models will make assumptions around preference flows, but much of what you see in telecasts will be predictive rather than actual preferences.

They could be wrong and need to get adjusted as the evening pans out. If the models make incorrect assumptions, seats that look like going one way could wildly swing when the real numbers are included.

Even if everything goes well, there is a good chance the winner – likely Albo – won’t be able to claim a victory with certainty when he takes to the stage. Unless he waits until very late, or only claims the win as a minority government, perhaps saying he has to wait for the count to finish before knowing he has a majority.

Which of course may never happen.

As for Dutton, with pre-poll votes coming in late and many more postal votes to come in the days ahead, if he does better than expected he may not want to concede this evening. Or at least wait until late before doing so.

With such low major party primary votes expected and so many crossbenchers trying to win their current seats, alongside new entrants hoping to win, it could be a long evening even if we get a hunch of what’s on the cards very early.

The first official exit poll is indicating that Labor is on track for another three years in office.

An exit poll of nearly 3,700 voters at 19 electorates across Australia, carried out by NewsCorp, showed Labor and the Coalition were matched on the primary vote with 32 per cent.

But independents and Greens’ preferences could push it in Labor’s favour in some keys seats.

The exit polls indicates a 2.2 per cent swing to Labor, while the Coalition looks as if it perform even worse than it did in 2022.

It sometimes feels like the major parties, especially Labor, over inflate their chances of overrunning Greens MPs, but it just might happen at this election.

Three years’ ago the Greens picked up three seats in Queensland of all places, new MPs joining leader Adam Bandt (pictured, below) in the House of Representatives.

Usually the power base for the Greens is in the senate where it hopes to hold the balance of power.

At this election the minor party hopes to have power in the lower house, if Labor drops to a minority government as expected.

But the major parties are coming after the Greens at this year’s election, and both the Liberals and Labor think they are a chance to snatch back at least some of the seats they lost three years ago.

Labor has high hopes of picking up Griffith in Brisbane, maybe even the CBD seat of Brisbane too, but that could be more difficult.

The Liberals want Ryan back, normally a safe seat for them. It’s a 50-50 proposition at best.

But the Greens aren’t sitting back merely hoping to retain their four lower house seats. They are going after Labor in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond where Labor strategists worry their MP could be in some bother.

Greens are also targeting Labor MP Josh Burns in his inner Melbourne seat, but I suspect Burns will hang on.

While the minor party is in the mix in lower house contests, it’s how it performs in the senate that will have the biggest impact on the next parliament.

A Green Senator is up for re-election in every state, and the odds are based on how the minor party is polling it will win a seat in every contest.

That will maintain its influence as the biggest balance of power minor party in the upper house. Meaning the Greens will often hold sway over policy decision making whenever Labor and the Coalition disagree.

No matter which major party wins this federal election.

The first exit poll has been published – and it’s not looking good for the Coalition.

The Liberal Party is at risk of losing the blue-ribbon South Australian electorate of Sturt, according to NCA Newswire.

Liberal incumbent James Stevens secured almost 38 per cent of the primary vote in the poll which asked 193 voters across three booths how they marked their first reference vote.

Meanwhile, Labor challenger Claire Clutterham secured 71 votes, or almost 37 per cent of the vote.

But Stevens’ first reference vote share fell five points from his 2022 performance, meaning his seat could be at risk.

He holds the seat with a tight 0.5 per cent margin.

Polls are now officially closed on the east coast of Australia.

A One Nation voter has revealed what he thinks of Albanese – and it’s just what you’d expect.

‘I voted for One Nation – that’s probably the best party,’ the young male voter told Sky News earlier.

‘I’m sick of Albanese and Dutton. Dutton’s better but Albanese is just a f**kwit.’

The blunt-talking voter was praised by Pauline Hanson.

‘One Nation: We’ve got the guts to say what you’re thinking,’ Senator Hanson wrote on X.

Adam Bandt thought he was posing for a simple ‘happy birthday’ video selfie.

But the Greens leader was caught out by the man behind the camera who criticised the left-wing party’s stance on Israel.

‘Let’s say together: I’ve demonised the Jewish community for my own political gain,’ the man said, as Bandt quickly lurched away.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has described the Greens as an ‘antisemitic, Jew-hating party’.

Votes will start to be counted on the east coast after 6pm, two hours later WA will join the party.

So what are the seats to watch this evening? Daily Mail Australia’s political editor Peter van Onselen has crunched the numbers, hit the phones to talk to candidates and party officials, and come up with the following as his assessment of the state of play seat-by-seat in the battlegrounds that matter.

Use this as your yardstick throughout the evening for how the election is unfolding, and we will circle back to these seats as the results come in. As well as any others we might have missed, but that’s unlikely.

Labor held seats at risk from the Coalition:

I think in descending order these are the Labor held seats most at risk of falling to the Liberals, with their margins in brackets.

Gilmore in NSW (0.2 percent)

Aston in Melbourne (3.6 percent)

Bullwinkel in Perth (3.3 percent)

Paterson in NSW (2.6 percent)

Werriwa in Sydney (5.3 percent)

After these five it becomes more difficult for the Liberals to pick up further Labor seats, but I still have them as the narrow favourites in three more, but all three are very close:

Lingiari in the NT (1.7 percent)

Hawke in Victoria (7.6 percent)

McEwen in Victoria (3.8 percent)

After that I can see three 50-50 toss of the coin seats the Coalition are fighting to claim:

Bennelong in Sydney (0.04 percent)

Tangney in Perth (2.8 percent)

Bendigo in regional Victoria (11.2 percent)

Beyond the above there are nine more seats Labor holds that the Australian electoral commission classifies as marginal, but I don’t see Labor losing any of them except maybe Blair but even then I think they’ll just miss out.

Lyons in Tassie (0.9 percent)

Robertson in NSW (2.2 percent)

Boothby in Adelaide (3.3 percent)

Chisholm in Melbourne (3.3 percent)

Parramatta in Sydney (3.7 percent)

Hunter in NSW (4.8 percent)

Reid in Sydney (5.2 percent)

Blair in Queensland (5.2 percent)

Bruce in Melbourne (5.3 percent)

Finally, a few roughies that aren’t even marginal Labor seats to keep your eyes on where big swings might go the Liberal Party’s way, but not by enough to win, unless something extraordinary happens which you never know in one or two of them.

Dunkley in Victoria

Shortland in NSW

Horton in Victoria

Pearce in WA

Whitlam in NSW

Labor has its eyes on a number of Liberal held seats it hopes to win.

The ones I think they are a chance of picking up (in order) in are:

Sturt in South Australia

Braddon in Tasmania

Bonner in Queensland

Menzies in Victoria

Bass in Tasmania

Deakin in Victoria

Leichhardt in Queensland

They should win some of these. If they pick up more than two or three, majority governnent for Labor is well and truly on the cards.

Beyond the above showdowns between the major parties, watch out for the following contests:

Labor might get Fowler back off the independent who won it at the last election.

Labor might get Griffith back from the Greens, perhaps even Brisbane too.

But Labor is at risk of losing Richmond on the NSW north coast to the Greens.

The Nationals might lose Cowper to an independent. And Liberals are trying to stave off an independent in Wannon and a Teal in Bradfield.

The Liberals hope to win against teals in Curtin, Kooyong and Goldstein. They want win all three, but that’s the order of likelihood in my view. They might not win any of them.

Liberals will also reclaim the seats of Moore in WA, Monash in Victoria and Calare in NSW. Sitting Coalition MPs in all three seats were elected three years ago but defected to the crossbench. All three are running against their old parties as independents this time around but I expect them all to lose.

So that’s the snapshot of what to watch out for this evening. Also, pre-poll votes – there were more than seven million of them – and they won’t get added to the count until after 9pm at the earliest. I would expect them to favour the Coalition, because they usually do. So don’t assume results are set in stone until we see what those numbers do, especially in very close seats.