Jordan’s King Abdullah II is set to meet with United States President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, amid the latter’s repeated insistence that the monarch accept Palestinians he would like to expel from Gaza so the US can take control of the enclave.

The idea came up in Trump’s comments – made alongside a smiling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week – that Palestinians should be “removed” from the devastated Gaza Strip. Trump has emphasised that, to his mind, the Palestinians would not return, making his ideas ethnic cleansing.

Jordan rejects the idea.

Trump’s comments were condemned not only by Jordan but also Egypt, which Trump also said should “take” Palestinians from Gaza, as well as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

However, Trump said US financial support for Jordan and Egypt would force their hand.

“If they don’t agree, I would conceivably withhold aid,” Trump said on Monday, the day before meeting King Abdullah.

A red line

US financial backing for Jordan is important – the country was the fourth-highest recipient of US foreign aid in 2023, with $1.72bn. But accepting the uprooting of millions of Palestinians from Gaza would be a political non-starter for Amman, according to analysts.

“Accepting another wave of Palestinians into the country remains a red line,” Dima Toukan, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera. “The king will not budge on this matter.”

King Abdullah, a longtime US ally, has been under pressure internationally and domestically since the beginning of Israel’s war on Gaza in October 2023.

Jordan’s position as a key regional ally to the US and a trade partner with Israel has angered its overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian population, which also includes at least 2 million Palestinian refugees and Jordanians of Palestinian origin.

Any acceptance of Trump’s ideas, which have been likened to the Nakba in which 750,000 Palestinians were ethnically cleansed by Zionist gangs to declare the state of Israel in 1948, would be a recipe for domestic unrest and challenge the monarchy’s legitimacy.

Protests against Israel’s war on Gaza, which has killed more than 61,700 Palestinians, have taken place in Amman for much of the last 16 months.

While they have calmed since the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Jordanians took to the streets again on Friday to protest against the idea of Trump displacing Palestinians from Gaza into Jordan.

“Jordanians were clear with their messages during protests on Friday,” Toukan said.

Anger can quickly lead to instability: An attack in September by a Jordanian killed three Israeli border guards.

“My sense is that the king is conveying a very urgent message that Trump’s disastrous ‘plan’ is effectively going to destroy Jordan,” Sean Yom, an associate professor of political science at Temple University, said.

“The displacement/relocation idea broaches the existential fear of all Jordanians – across the board, from monarchy to society – that Israel will annex all of Palestine, and that resource-poor, socially-restive Jordan will be left picking up the pieces.”

Aid troubles

But Jordan has to weigh up other considerations when it comes to Trump’s comments.

Even before Israel’s war on Gaza, the monarchy was under pressure due to economic struggles that led to disenchantment among some of the country’s influential tribes.

Jordan is already getting a taste of Trump’s potential to upend decades of financial assistance after he announced on the day of his inauguration that most of the US’s global aid commitments would be frozen for 90 days.

Some Jordanians say they lost work or had their businesses impacted by Trump’s decision. It is also notable that while Egypt and Israel were given exceptions on the foreign aid freeze, Jordan’s position as a staunch regional ally did not protect it.

“Jordan is directly dependent upon US aid and security assistance,” Yom said. “The kingdom is vulnerable to geopolitical blackmail.”

Ever since Jordan and Israel signed the 1994 Wadi Araba peace agreement, the Hashemite Kingdom has been a key ally of the US with support for it often crossing administrations and party lines.

But Trump’s pressure may force Jordan and other regional allies to start hedging their bets, analysts said.

Jordan, Egypt and other Gulf states “are probably looking to Russia and China”, Geoffrey Hughes, author of the book Kinship, Islam and the Politics of Marriage in Jordan: Affection and Mercy, told Al Jazeera.

“A lot will hinge on how much that scares the Trump administration and how credible any threat of defection or hedging seems in light of the signals coming out of Moscow and Beijing.”

Troops as a stick

To continue operating as usual, Jordan would have to find enough funding from foreign powers to fill a billion-dollar gap. Analysts said the prospect of the full amount being covered was unlikely.

But Jordan may have one more means of leverage.

“The biggest thing to watch is the stationing of US forces in Jordan,” Hughes said.

There are about 3,000 US troops in Jordan, largely focused on countering ISIL (ISIS) in recent years, part of a wider network of US troops ostensibly built up to counter ISIL over the last decade, with other troops stationed in Syria and Iraq.

And yet, with Trump in power, even that leverage may not be as important as it once seemed.

The US president has split from his predecessors, who placed importance on a US presence in the region, speaking about pulling US troops from Syria and Iraq.

Trump reiterated the intention to pull US troops from Syria in late January, leaving some to wonder if a US presence in Jordan would be a priority.

It could also alter the Jordan-Israel relationship, giving Israel an excuse to intervene directly with perceived “security threats” inside Jordanian territory.

“Maybe Trump doesn’t even want [US troops in Jordan] … they also complicate any Israeli aggression that could be forthcoming,” said Hughes.