Vice President Kamala Harris has seized an eight-point lead in a key congressional district that could tip the race for the White House if it ends up being a photo finish in the electoral college.

Her lead in Nebraska‘s 2nd Congressional District is the biggest of the cycle in the Remington Research Group poll, where Trump has held narrow leads over President Joe Biden before he ended his run.

The district’s importance is made plain by the candidate’s schedules.  Donald Trump running mate J.D. Vance was there Wednesday for a grassroots fundraiser at a bar. Kamala Harris’ running mate Tim Walz stopped there as he made his way to Chicago for the Democratic convention and tried to fill in his biography.

He spent his childhood in Butte and Valentine, Nebraska. Walz delivered a Wednesday night convention speech that stressed his midwestern roots and time as an assistant high school football coach. Cheering delegates were handed signs that said ‘Coach Walz.’ 

President Joe Biden carried the district in 2020 52-46. It didn’t end up mattering in that race, in a race that wasn’t particularly close where he prevailed 306 to 232.

It has Harris narrowly leading Trump on the economy, 47 to 46. 

It is difficult to predict how things will shake out in November, but to Democratic Party leaders including Harris and former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack obama are warning that the race cold be close. Obama’s 2008 campaign chair David Plouffe said some state battlegrounds could be determined by one or two votes in each precinct.

Nebraska distributes its five electoral votes proportionally, with two at-large electors and three others split by district. 

The Omaha-based seat is typically the only one in play. The were split in 2020 for the second time in the GOP-leaning state. 

Walz tried to put the closeness of the race in football terms Wednesday night. ‘It’s the fourth quarter. We’re down a field goal. But we’re on offense and we’ve got the ball. We’re driving down the field. And boy, do we have the right team,’ he told the convention crowd.

Harris is at 50 percent favorability in the survey, with Donald Trump at 42.  

Under just one of Electoral College scenarios, Harris could keep most of Biden’s 2020 map, including his midwestern ‘blue wall’, while giving up battleground Nevada and Arizona – provided she keeps the Nebraska district that Biden won.